Salamander Migration Update # 10 - Where's the Pepto?

It's Salamander Migration Quiz time - This should be very easy to answer for anyone that was on Beekman Road last week and that has been following along with these posts. Okay, so here is the quiz question: "What do the following all have in common? Pepto Bismol, Rolaids, Tums, Pepcid, Mylanta, Nexium..."  If you answered, "they are all needed by anyone trying to predict the salamander migration this year", you are correct! 

Once again, the weather forecast is very complex and complicates predicting what might happen. I suspect everyone knows that a very strong coastal low will be off the New Jersey coast Wednesday into early Thursday. It is expected to have loads of moisture with it. But there are many uncertainties about the storm and therefore, if it will trigger any salamander movement tomorrow evening. There are questions about the actual track of the storm, when the precipitation will start, whether central New Jersey will get mostly rain or snow, when rain might change to snow, temperatures aloft versus near the ground and a whole host of other meterological factors that just can't be pinned down at this point. From culling through numerous weather outlets, It seems like East Brunswick is likely to see a cold heavy rain at some point tomorrow that will then eventually change to a heavy wet accumulating snow. Temperatures are forecast for tomorrow afternoon somewhere around 40 and then dropping into the mid 30's during the night. My gut still tells me that air and ground temperatures will be too cold tomorrow, especially given how cold it has been this week. Nonetheless, we are carefully monitoring the situation and will likely decide what to do about closing the road tomorrow afternoon when we see what is happening. Stay tuned...in the meantime, here is the latest NOAA forecast discussion (these are always a good read):

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEFOUND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. WHILE THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELAGREEMENT IN THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING MOST OF WEDNESDAYINTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SLOWLY TRACK OFFSHORE, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ALSO THE THERMAL FIELDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TIMING OFTHE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR OUR AREA. THE NAM GIVES A COLDER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN DETERMINING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND HOW LONG AN ACCUMULATING WET SNOW WILL LAST. AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERSPREADS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF JUST SNOW SEEN FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE MARYLAND/DELAWARE/SEPENNSYLVANIA BORDER. A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ, MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY JUST WET SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BANDING FEATURE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER PRECIP RATES, AND THE NAM ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND PRECIP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

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