I think the Magic 8 Ball says it all for today. If I could find my Ouija Board that might help too. As we have said many times, predicting salamander migrations is difficult. Migration requires a combination of weather and ecological mechanisms. Yesterday I read an excellent paper on spotted salamander migration triggers: The effects of temperature and precipitation on the breeding migration of the spotted salamander (AMBYSTOMA MACULATUM). Sexton, O. J., C. Phillips, and J. E. Bramble. 1990. Copeia 1990:781-787. In this paper, the authors outline the following conditions that were important in their study:
3 day mean temperature of 41.9° F / 5.5° C
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Soil temperature @ 30 cm greater than 39.2° F / 2.13° C
At least 0.16 inches / 0.4 cm of rainfall
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A reversal of the soil temperature profile (surface is warmer than sub-surface)
I suspect we have not quite reached these thresholds yet along Beekman Road but we must be close. The scientists also found secondary factors that were less important but still influential related to lower air and soil temperatures. We have almost certainly reached those which is probably why we have seen some early movement of a few males. Today's weather forecast is as problematic as we've seen over the past week or so. There will be rain, but the temperatures are forecast to be right around 40 and they will likely be dropping at some point in the late afternoon or early evening when the precipitation is expected to turn to heavy wet snow. I don't expect that there will be a large movement tonight given what I'm seeing with the weather, but I also suspect we probably have to make a late call on this one as we see what develops. And the same may be true of tomorrow as well. We don’t want to close the road and inconvenience drivers for no reason but of course we also don’t want to not close the road and have movement.
I think the latest NOAA forecast from 3:57am gives a good sense of where things are:
NEAR TERM/UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AFTER DAYS OF ANTICIPATION, THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN WELL DISCUSSED,BUT NOT NECESSARILY WELL MODELED IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AFFECTING THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE. NORMALLY, AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, CONFIDENCE INCREASES. HOWEVER, THIS IS ONE OF THOSE ANOMALOUS EVENTS, WHERE THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY THE CASE. WHILE OVERALL, THE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE INDIVIDUAL DETAILS TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.
THE GENERAL FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS THE SAME. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF I-95 TODAY AND GENERALLY SNOW NORTH OF THERE. ITS MARCH, AND WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE, IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR IT TO ACCUMULATE MUCH DURING THE DAY ON TREATED SURFACES UNLESS IT COMES DOWN HEAVY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AND THEN ITS JUST A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT AND OF COURSE, WHAT THE TEMPS ARE.
The weekend and next week feature a decidely warmer trend, so stay tuned....
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