Salamander Migration Update #9

Well we finally made it to March and despite the very cold temperatures last night, spring is really close. Snowdrops are blooming in my yard, a few male red-winged blackbirds are on territory, silver maple buds are swollen and daffodils and hyacinths are poking up through the ground. The only thing we could use now are some migrating spotted salamanders and nice loud choruses of spring peepers! So when will we see the salamanders and hear the peepers? Someone asked me today if I thought it would be this week and the only way I can answer is..."soon".

Once again the weather as it relates to a potential migration trigger is complex. There is almost certainly going to be a significant coastal storm in our area from Wednesday into early Thursday. But the models related to its track and temperature profiles are not in good agreement and according to the NOAA Forecast discussion much is up in the air despite the storm being only 72 hours away.

The current forecast seems to suggest that the storm will stay far enough off shore and to our south that central NJ will not get the brunt of it, and after Sandy, that's certainly good news. But that may not be good news for a salamander migration. At the moment, depending on the weather outlet, the percent chance of precipitation ranges from 30-50% during the day with light rain or showers to 50-70% at night with heavier amounts. On the face of it, this sounds pretty good. However, the migration is triggered by a combination of factors including precipitation and temperature. We typically want to see temperatures during the day in the mid-40's (or higher) and not dropping too quickly after dark. Just a few degrees too cold can stifle movement. Again, there is a bit of variability between the various weather outlets but all are trending a little bit colder than we'd like to see with ranges for the day between about 41 and 43 and then dropping back at night into the 30's. There is even a chance that we will see some snow! 

So, what does this mean? Migration or no migration this week? From 72 hours out my gut tells me this won't be the one. But, the models will be revised countless times between now and then as the forecast is honed and we will be following it closely. I guess about the best we can say is stay tuned and it will be..."soon".

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