Hurricane On Track to Hit New Jersey

From an  to a hurricane, New Jersey could get walloped this weekend by a direct hit from Hurricane Irene, based on current projections.

On Tuesday evening, the National Hurricane Center projected a possible direct hit on the state from the hurricane this weekend.

It's anticipated that Hurricane Irene will cross the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a major hurricane by mid-afternoon on Saturday. The storm is then projected to advance up the coast of the Delmarva peninsula before hitting the southern tip of New Jersey early Sunday afternoon. 

“New Jersey is going to be impacted in some way this weekend – particularly Sunday – by the storm, but this far out the exact forecast track can be off by 200 to 300 miles. Of course, that will make a huge difference in how we're affected,” Meteorologist Bob Wanton of the Mount Holly National Weather Service told Patch Tuesday morning. 

Irene is expected to intensify throughout the day on Tuesday and into Wednesday. The storm could reach the strength of a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) later today.

“Irene is growing in strength. Once Irene gets passed the influences of the island if Hispanola, Irene is going to intensify rapidly because the nearly 90 degree waters are primed for tropical development," NYNJPAWeather.com Meteorologist Steven DiMartino told Patch during a Tuesday interview.

But a lot of uncertainty remains. The storm's exact track and forecasted strength remain up in the air. 

“It looks like the storm should clip the Carolina coast, and then how it affects our area remains uncertain. The storm could come right over us, or go off to the northeast and remain over the Atlantic waters. Either way, it's a serious situation,” Meteorologist Bob Wanton warns.

A look at a 'spaghetti drawing' of current weather forecast models around mid-day Tuesday showed a variety of solutions for the system's exact track by Sunday. However, most models have the storm within 100 miles of that Atlantic City coast by midday Sunday. 

"When the system gets here, we could be dealing with a storm that has the strength of anything from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane. The storm could dump anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of rain regardless depending on how it interacts with land. That kind of rain fall would create flash flooding no matter where you are,” Meteorologist Steven DiMartino said.

The storm's exact track will be determined the speed of a trough (a large weather front) in the Great Lakes. If the front moves slowly the storm will track up the coast, according to DiMartino. If the front moves quickly out of the Great Lakes, it could push the storm further off the coast, alleviating a lot of problems. A worst case scenario would place the storm just off the New Jersey coast on Sunday, according to DiMartino. 

“If the storm is just off of the New Jersey coast, we'll see winds driving the waters into the coast for hours, and that is a bad situation for costal flooding and beach damage,” he said.

But there is the potential for a more encouraging track.

“If the storm is further east that'd be the case scenario. If that were the case, we'd see a little rain and gusty winds at the shore, but inland areas could have sun shining,” DiMartino said.