Raritan Basin Communities Could See Plenty of Flooding, Sustained Winds from Irene

State Climatologist David A. Robinson said Irene's potential for problems is compounded with the rainfall that the state has already seen.

The Raritan Basin had upwards of nine inches of rain this month, while the normal rainfall is usually around four and a quarter inches, Robinson said.

As a result the rivers are running high as it is, and there is little room to put the rainfall that is expected in this area, Robinson said.

The storm forecast predicts a potential of more than 10 inches of rain in parts of New Jersey, Robinson said.

"We could be faced with flooding that rivals the flooding of  (Hurricane) Floyd," Robinson said.

Additionally, strong, sustained winds can potentially push trees up out of the already damp soil, down power lines and complicate travel.

Continuous winds in this area could go as high as 50 mph, with hurricane force gusts possible, Robinson said.

"With the ground so wet, it's easier for trees to get uprooted," Robinson said. "We're all too well primed for problems in terms of uprooted trees and flooding rivers."

Robinson was careful to say that all the forecast scenarios are potential, and not definites. Forecasts are still taking shape as the days progress, but the agreement across those forecasts is that if the hurricane does make landfall in New Jersey, there will be problems.

"There is a lot of consensus in the forecast models that New Jersey will be very close to this storm, (and) the inescapable threat is that there is a major threat here," Robinson said.

Robinson said that it is important that people take the proper precautions.

"I really hope people just find a safe place to stay and ride it out," he said. "That was the only thing that worried me back in March of 2010; people didn't understand that noreaster was so strong and they were out and about on their Saturday adventures."