Opinion: What Happened to Long Coattails in Gubernatorial Elections?

To a legislator, the difference between being in the majority and being in the minority is as consequential as the difference between being in office and being out of office. That is why my political life was transformed in November 1985 when, as a result of Gov. Tom Kean’s reelection landslide, I metamorphosed from an inconsequential Assembly backbencher to the chairman of a powerful legislative committee.

In 1985 Tom Kean’s coattails resulted in the Republican membership of the 80-member New Jersey Assembly spiking from 36 to 50. (Regrettably for us Republicans, the Senate wasn’t running for reelection that year, so the Democrats retained their majority in the upper house through 1991).

We had expected some pickups in marginal districts, but no one had predicted a rout so sweeping that four of Hudson County’s six Assemblymen would be Republicans. What I learned from that election is that coattails aren’t just the result of a popular leader convincing voters to support his or her running mates. The most powerful coattail effects are caused by actually changing the composition of the electorate.

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